Projection for Result of 2016 Scottish Parliamentary Election

Scottish-Parliament-2266485

Looking past the upcoming Westminster election, I thought it might be interesting to use the most up to date polls to project what might happen next year.

In truth, I did this as much to test my own understanding of the additional member system which is used in the Scottish parliament, but also to see how current trends would impact on the balance of the Scottish parliament.

My methodology and full results are included later in the article.

Results

Party Constituency MSPs Regional MSPs Total Change
Scottish National Party 64 2 66 -3
Labour 6 26 32 -5
Conservatives 1 14 15
Scottish Greens 0 11 11 +9
Liberal Democrats 2 3 5

Note: The ‘winning post’ for a parliamentary majority in the Scottish Parliament is 65 seats.

In my projection, the SNP retains majority control of the parliament, although their majority is reduced due to their gains in constituency seats resulting in reduced representation via the regional lists.

The biggest winners in this election are made the Scottish Green party who add at least one new list MSP in each region to raise their tally to eleven MSPs.

Labour are the big losers, dropping five seats in total with their losses in the constituencies not made up on the regional list although the remain the second largest party and de facto opposition.

Both Conservatives and Liberal Democrats stand still in terms of seats, with the Conservatives losing two constituency seats but seeing their numbers replenished via the regional list.

While I included both UKIP and the Scottish Socialist Party in the calculations, neither came close to gaining representation, even via the regional list based on current polls.

With the balance of power in the parliament little shifted, we could expect a continuation of strong SNP governance, possibly relying on informal alliances with the Scottish Greens to ensure the smooth procession of legislation as a parliamentary majority of one seat is very vulnerable to back bench rebellions.

Going forward, it seems like Conservative and Liberal support has stabilized at it’s lowest point and both parties must feel that the worst has passed and they can look about rehabilitating their vote to historical levels.

Meanwhile it is apparent that Labour need to reinvent themselves as a party of opposition in order to present themselves as a credible threat to the SNP by 2020. How they set about doing that will be very interesting indeed and could shape the party’s future.

Also interesting will be seeing how the Scottish Greens respond to becoming a major force in Scottish politics and whether that party can push on and become a meaningful opposition to the SNP from the left (perhaps acting as a conscience of sorts for the governing party), offering balance to Labour, Conservatives and Liberals on the right.

At the same time, it must be lamented that the relatively progressive additional member system only returned representation for five parties and I would hope that UKIP (given their apparent support, as seen in the European elections) and some of Scotland’s various socialist parties could achieve representation at least.

Methodology

I aggregated three of the most recent opinion polls (Survation, You Gov & TNS obtained here) and used the aggregate figure to determine a uniform swing in vote % compared with 2011 results for each party on both the constituency and regional lists.

These uniform swings were then applied to each constituency vote and regional vote individually, producing the results outlined below.

Naturally, the use of a uniform swing is prone to error, especially in the constituency votes and there is a lot of politics to pass between now and May 2016.

Furthermore, the lack of independents in the calculations could prove important, as popular independent candidates could arise who win a constituency or regional seat and upset some of these calculations.

Nonetheless, I feel this is a reasonable projection of next year’s election based on current polls at this time.

Uniform Swing Calculations

Constituency Vote

Party Aggregrated Vote % From Polls Uniform Swing Since 2011 (2011 %)
Scottish National Party 48.667 + 3.277 (45.4)
Labour 28.333 – 3.357 (31.7)
Conservative 12.667 -1.243 (13.9)
Liberal Democrats 4.333 -3.597 (7.9)

Regional Vote

Party Aggregated Vote % from Polls Uniform Swing Since 2011 (2011 %)
Scottish National Party 42.333 -1.7 (44.04)
Labour 24 -2.31 (26.31)
Conservative 12.333 -0.03 (12.36)
Liberal Democrat 5.667 +0.4 (5.2)
Scottish Greens 10 +5.62 (4.38)
UKIP 3.333 +2.423 (0.91)
Scottish Socialist Party 1.333 +0.913 (0.42)

Summarised Results

Party Constituency MSPs Regional MSPs Total Change
Scottish National Party 64 2 66 -3
Labour 6 26 32 -5
Conservatives 1 14 15
Scottish Greens 0 11 11 +9
Liberal Democrats 2 3 5

Full Constituency & Regional Results

CENTRAL SCOTLAND

Constituency Winner Hold / Gain
Airdrie & Shotts SNP Hold
Coatbridge & Chryston Labour Hold
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth SNP Hold
East Kilbride SNP Hold
Falkirk East SNP Hold
Falkirk West SNP Hold
Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse SNP Hold
Motherwell & Wishaw SNP Gain from Labour
Uddingston & Bellshill SNP Gain
Regional List Seats Change
Labour 5 +2
Scottish Greens 1 +1
Conservatives 1
Scottish National Party 0 -3

GLASGOW

Constituency Winner Hold / Gain
Glasgow Anniesland SNP Hold
Glasgow Cathcart SNP Hold
Glasgow Kelvin SNP Hold
Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn SNP Gain from Labour
Glasgow Pollok SNP Gain from Labour
Glasgow Provan Labour Hold
Glasgow Shettleston SNP Hold
Glasgow Southside SNP Hold
Rutherglen SNP Gain from Labour
Regional List Additional Members Change
Labour 4 +1
Scottish Greens 2 +1
Conservatives 1
SNP 0 -2

HIGHLANDS & ISLANDS

Constituency Winner Hold / Gain
Argyll & Bute SNP Hold
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross SNP Hold
Inverness & Nairn SNP Hold
Moray SNP Hold
Na h-Eileanan an Iar SNP Hold
Orkney Liberal Democrat Hold
Shetland Liberal Democrat Hold
Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch SNP Hold
Regional List Seats Change
Scottish National Party 2 -1
Labour 2
Liberal Democrats 0
Conservatives 2
Greens 1 +1

LOTHIAN

Constituency Winner Hold / Gain
Almond Valley SNP Hold
Edinburgh Central SNP Hold
Edinburgh Eastern SNP Hold
Edinburgh Northern & Leith SNP Gain from Labour
Edinburgh Pentlands SNP Hold
Edinburgh Southern SNP Hold
Edinburgh Western SNP Hold
Linlithgow SNP Hold
Midlothian North & Musselburgh SNP Hold
Regional List Seats Change
Labour 3
Conservatives 2
Scottish Greens 2 +1

MID SCOTLAND & FIFE

Constituency Winner Hold/Gain
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane SNP Hold
Cowdenbeath Labour Hold
Dunfermline SNP Hold
Fife North East SNP Hold
Kirkcaldy SNP Hold
Mid Fife & Glenrothes SNP Hold
Perthshire North SNP Hold
Perthshire South & Kinross-shire SNP Hold
Stirling SNP Hold
Regional List Seats Change
Labour 3
Conservative 2
Scottish Greens 1 +1
Liberal Democrats 1
Scottish National Party 0 -1

NORTH EAST SCOTLAND

Constituency Winner Hold / Gain
Aberdeen Central SNP Hold
Aberdeen Donside SNP Hold
Aberdeen South & North Kincardine SNP Hold
Aberdeenshire East SNP Hold
Aberdeenshire West SNP Hold
Angus North & Mearns SNP Hold
Angus South SNP Hold
Banffshire & Buchan Coast SNP Hold
Dundee City East SNP Hold
Dundee City West SNP Hold
Regional List Seats Change
Conservatives 2
Labour 2 -1
Scottish Greens 2 +2
Liberal Democrats 1
Scottish National Party 0 -1

SOUTH SCOTLAND

Constituency Winner Hold / Gain
Ayr SNP Gain from Conservative
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley SNP Hold
Clydesdale SNP Hold
Dumfriesshire Labour Hold
East Lothian SNP Gain from Labour
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire Conservative Hold
Galloway & West Dumfries SNP Gain from Conservative
Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley SNP Hold
Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale SNP Hold
Regional List Seats Change
Labour 3 +1
Conservatives 2 +2
Scottish Greens 1 +1
Liberal Democrats 1
Scottish National Party 0 -4

WEST SCOTLAND

Constituency Winner Hold / Gain
Clydebank & Milngavie SNP Hold
Cunninghame North SNP Hold
Cunninghame South SNP Hold
Dumbarton SNP Gain from Labour
Eastwood Labour Hold
Greenock & Inverclyde SNP Gain from Labour
Paisley SNP Hold
Renfrewshire North & West SNP Hold
Renfrewshire South Labour Hold
Strathkelvin & Bearsden SNP Hold
Regional List Seats Change
Labour 4 +1
Conservatives 2
Scottish Greens 1 +1
Scottish National Party 0 -2
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